Week 4 could not have gone any better. This blog boy was in Seattle watching live Pac 12 football and enjoying amazing weather in a beautiful city. Washington dominated Stanford from start to finish and I got to see it from the best seats in the house. Pregame, the scene was picturesque. Tucked between the south side of Husky Stadium and Union Bay, this wasn’t your typical tailgate location. In what was a somewhat secluded area relative to other tailgate lots, we were surrounded by trees and even a rock climbing wall. Peek your head through those trees and get a view of the massive yachts full of “sailgaters”. I ate a Philly cheesesteak off of a portable flat-top grill and a soft pretzel with mustard. Good food, great people, and a perfect setting. What else could a football fan ask for?
As fun as doing real life things is, it’s time consuming. Between shopping for hot new clothes, packing, flying across the country, and enjoying the company of new friends, there isn’t much time leftover for blogging. I was not able to bust out a week 4 preview, leaving my hundreds of thousands of readers desperate for content. Luckily I was able to set aside some time to study the lines and come up with my picks against the spread. Good thing too, because as predicted in my week 3 recap, I was money in week 4.
I spoke of a greater understanding of the current landscape stemming from more normalized results in week 3. The rust being shaken off during the first two weeks led to absolute chaos. As fun as that is, it’s nearly impossible to decipher. When things went a little more like how they were expected to in week 3, it painted a clearer picture of who’s real and who’s not.
Michigan is legit, but my bias got in the way last week. Recently I’ve started to develop a bit of a J.J. McCarthy obsession. His ability to make every throw while also being a threat on the ground is tantalizing, and he has looked more polished than I expected so far. That caused me to make an ill-advised decision to take the Wolverines minus the points. As impressive as they were through three weeks, the lack of competition should not have been ignored. Against a solid Maryland team, I should have known that 17 points was too much. Michigan got the win but couldn’t cover, resulting in my only loss of a 3-1 week.
Baylor, Kansas, and Florida came through for me, but not by much and not without some drama.
The Bears were road dogs in Ames against the Cyclones. I was expecting an outright win so taking the points was a no-brainer. They were in control throughout, but Iowa State made a run late to get my heart pumping a little faster. The score against the spread was never really in doubt, and Baylor won by seven. Dave Aranda’s squad is the type of team I gravitate towards. Solid defensively with a balanced offense that has big play upside. I could definitely see myself taking them again this year (foreshadowing).
Kansas has been the story of college football early this season. Jalon Daniels is an absolute stud. He has carried the Jayhawks to an undefeated start. He continued his dominance on Saturday against another early season surprise team in Duke, with 324 passing yards and 4 TDs, as well as 83 yards and another TD on the ground. This game progressed much like the last one, Kansas controlled throughout but the Blue Devils had a late run to make me sweat. The Jayhawks covered nonetheless, and I got my second win of the day. The win almost certainly should have vaulted Kansas into the top 25, but the AP voters always seem to be a week behind those of us who actually follow the sport. They remain unranked (the longest active FBS unranked drought) as they head into a very difficult part of the schedule. Here’s to hoping they can take care of business this week at home against the aforementioned Iowa State team and earn some extra votes.
The game of the day was on Rocky Top, in Knoxville, TN. In a classic SEC East matchup, Florida visited the Volunteers looking to continue their dominance in the series. The Gators had won 16 of the last 17 matchups entering this game. That made it even more surprising that Tennessee closed as 10.5 point favorites. Although the Vols had been impressive so far this year, their defense would surely be tested against SEC competition. In their only legitimate matchup prior to this game, Pitt quarterback Kedon Slovis went down at halftime. Before his injury it looked like the Panthers would be scoring at will all game. Because of these defensive questions I took Florida and the points. It didn’t look good for most of the afternoon as Tennessee dominated, but a late run actually helped me this time. Florida made a push that ultimately fell short of a win but got me the cover.
Week 5 Picks – Season Record: 9-6-1
Baylor -2.5
I wasn’t messing around when I said I’d end up taking Baylor again. The #16 Bears host #9 Oklahoma State in the afternoon window on Saturday. The Cowboys are coming off a bye and have been impressive to start the year. Their offense is clicking on all cylinders, but the defense that was dominant under now Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, has been unimpressive without him. It looks like things are back to normal for Oklahoma State. All offense and no defense. That formula has been fun to watch and generally successful over the years, but it comes with a very thin margin for error. I’ll go with the more balanced attack at home and take Baylor minus the points.
Washington State -4
If Baylor is my new team to lean on, I better make sure to show some love to the OG. Earlier this year I picked Wazzu to win outright as 17 point dogs at Wisconsin and they made me look like a genius. Similar to the Bears, the Cougars bring a balanced attack to the table. Their offense has yet to really get it going behind one of my favorite quarterbacks Cam Ward, but it has shown signs of life in recent weeks. They basically dominated Oregon at home last week before “Couging it” in the fourth quarter to blow the game. The defense has been quite stout however, and this matchup is very similar to the one with the Badgers. Cal is dependent on a strong running game with phenom Jaydn Ott, but they won’t be able to get it going against an elite Washington State front seven.
LSU -8
I have been wrestling with this one all week. I strongly believe the train has left the station at Auburn and they are on the brink of total breakdown. I also believe that the matchup strongly favors LSU, with their stout run stopping front facing off against an Auburn offense that features two stud running backs and almost no pass game to speak of. The spread scares me a bit – giving eight points on the road is no easy task. It was even up to nine at one point before reverting back to the opening line. I’m going with my gut here and saying the LSU will win and cover, possibly ending the Bryin Harsin era at Auburn.
Other Notables
It’s not the most exciting week of matchups in college football history, but there are definitely some games worth watching. Arkansas being a 17 point home dog against Alabama is sort of insulting. The Hogs were in the top ten last week and barely lost to A&M on a neutral field. I really want to take them to at least beat the spread against the Tide, but can’t get myself to bet against Nick Saban.
The Aggies come off a tough win against Arkansas and head to Starkville to take on Mississippi State. The Bulldogs are four point favorites and I can’t get a feel for this one at all. My gut says A&M will actually win outright, but I just don’t have enough of a read on Mississippi State yet this year to make a call. Another great game to watch in the afternoon window along with Bama/Arkansas and Oklahoma State/Baylor.
The game of the night will be a matchup of undefeated ACC Atlantic rivals NC State and Clemson. The Tigers are seven point favorites which feels right given their history as a dominant program and the home field advantage. I’m staying away though. The Clemson defense has not lived up to expectations and NC State was one of my underrated teams coming into the season. All I know is I’ll be tuned in on Saturday night.
Official Picks:
Washington State -4
Baylor -2.5
LSU -8
I’ll be at another live game this weekend as it’s homecoming at the University of Minnesota, where the Gophers will take on Purdue tomorrow morning in the early slate. I’m legitimately pissed that the Kentucky/Ole Miss game is also in the early window as I desperately want to watch that game. Good thing I just got a new phone with enough battery life to stream a whole game… I won’t be that guy though. I’ll be screaming my lungs out and rocking maroon to help “stripe out” Huntington Bank Stadium. Look for recap of this week’s experience on campus as well as the other games early next week.
Thanks for reading!
Superior CFB 