As it turned out, part one of my Preseason AP Top 25 Poll reaction was more of a recap than a reaction. I touched on eight of the top sixteen teams and essentially gave my overall thoughts on each program. Well, fire up the hot take cannon. Here I call out the teams I’m higher or lower on than the consensus.
Overrated.
Nobody will be able to say I am biased towards the Big Ten (yet). All three of the teams I believe are most overrated in the initial poll hail from the nation’s secondary power football conference; and two are from the same state!
I am just not sold on Michigan (#8) or Michigan State (#15). Both programs are coming off breakthrough seasons and both have major holes to fill.
Michigan (#8) finally took down Ohio State (they only needed two full years in between games to prepare) and won their first conference championship of the Jim Harbaugh era. After losing two premier edge rushers in top end draft picks Aiden Hutchinson and David Ojabo, there are real questions about how they will generate pressure up front. Although they do have some interesting pieces (see The Athletic’s Bruce Feldman’s annual Freaks List), they are relatively unproven, especially compared to the stars of the 2021 defense. On offense the story is centered the prototypical college football quarterback battle: a safe but unsexy veteran versus a highly talented but inexperienced underclassmen. As of this week the battle is still up in the air. One would think Harbaugh might have learned his lesson after dragging the QB competition into the beginning of a disappointing 2017 season, but that doesn’t seem that’s the case. If I were in charge I’d hand the keys to sophomore J.J. McCarthy. I’m not, so I’d expect Cade McNamara, whose play style has been compared to Harbaugh’s, to get another shot as the Wolverines signal caller.
If any team in the country is due for some regression it’s the Michigan State Spartans (#15). While I’m very impressed with what coach Mel Tucker was able to do in the transfer portal prior to 2021 that lead to a surprise top ten finish, it’s highly unlikely they will be able to replicate that success this year. One of those transfers, Doak Walker award winner Kenneth Walker III, carried Sparty’s offense and will need to be replaced after moving on to the pro ranks. Although I do believe in what Tucker is building long term in East Lansing, I think they will likely finish 2022 unranked.
Last but certainly not least, my third overrated team is the Wisconsin Badgers (#18). This might be some of that bias shining through. I was raised to hate Bucky (mostly within the context of the old Western Collegiate Hockey Association). One thing I hate almost as much is poor passing attacks. When is the last time anyone was impressed with the quarterback play in Madison? In today’s game the margin for error is too thin when depending solely on the run game and defense. While former Badger Jim Leonhard looks to have another strong defensive unit in what could be his final season at the helm (likely 2023 head coach candidate) and sophomore back Braelon Allen is a total monster, they won’t be enough to win the Big Ten West for Wisconsin.
Underrated.
My sneaky contender for the fourth playoff spot is the Oklahoma Sooners (#9). One of the winningest programs in the history of college football is poised for a bounce back season in 2022 (Yes, 11-2, 7-2 is a disappointment for Oklahoma). Their roster is once again loaded from top to bottom and they are led by an under the radar Heisman contender at quarterback. Dillon Gabriel looked like a future star at UCF before suffering a broken collarbone that limited him to only three games in 2022. Now he heads west to Norman to prove he is the bigtime passer we once thought he could be. He will be playing with more talent around him than he ever has and new head coach Brent Venables brings his renowned defensive scheme over from Clemson, which should help keep the pressure off of Gabriel.
Is it possible for a team matching it’s highest preseason ranking in program history to be underrated? Probably not, but I’m going with it anyway. Last year was a roller coaster for N.C. State (#13). They broke through and took down rivals Clemson and North Carolina but lost close games to Miami and Wake Forrest, causing them to miss out on a trip to the conference championship and a chance to win ten games for the first time in program history. Then with another chance to pick up the elusive tenth win in their bowl game, it was cancelled just hours before kickoff because of a COVID outbreak on the UCLA roster. Despite the rather tumultuous season, there is something special going on in Raleigh. In the age of the transfer Dave Doeren has mastered the art of talent retention. The Wolfpack returns 14 of its 16 leading tacklers from 2021, and that doesn’t even include the ’19 & ’20 leader Payton Wilson, who missed most of last season due to injury. The entire defense is loaded. Led up front by All-ACC first teamer, senior Cory Durden. If you read part one of this series, you learned that I am a big fan of havoc-wreaking tackles. Durden fits that category and adds the versatility of being able to play outside as well. Talented quarterback Devin Leary is getting a lot of hype this preseason and rightfully so. He combines big time arm talent with the supreme moxie that is necessary of being a stud signal caller. The rest of the offense might lack star power, but it combines experience and depth to provide a solid supporting cast for Leary. A veteran coach/QB combo with a balanced offense and a stalwart defense is a great formula for success. I’m expecting big things from the Wolfpack this season.
Nothing makes a good underrated pick like a team with a chip on its shoulder and the 2022 Arkansas Razorbacks (#19) fit that bill. In 2020 Sam Pittman took over a mess of a program, coming off two straight 2-10 seasons. After upsetting Mississippi State on the road to end a twenty game conference losing streak, Pittman had laid the foundation for a breakthrough 2021. The Hogs finished the ’21 season ranked for the first time since 2011 and beat Penn State to earn its first New Year’s Day bowl win since 2000. Even with all that growth, they still aren’t getting the respect they deserve heading into this season. A top twenty ranking is certainly respectable, but many are hesitant to commit to the idea of Arkansas taking the next step. The team says they aren’t bothered, but I get the feeling it is actually driving them. Pittman has an offensive line background and his team takes on that identity. They spread the ball around a diverse backfield, with quarterback KJ Jefferson being the leading returning rusher. He has the frame (6’3″ 242lbs.) to hold up to that type of workload in the SEC, but doesn’t need to depend on it as he was also the fourth most efficient passer in the conference last year. There are major questions about the receiving corps, but a breakout season from former five star Oklahoma transfer Jadon Haselwood could cover those up nicely. The defense should be improved in its third year under Barry Odom. They will be depending on a former five star transfer on that side of the ball as well. Drew Sanders comes over from Alabama and will be needed to provide immediate pass rush help to a team that struggled in that department last season. I’d be remiss if I didn’t mention star linebacker Bumper Pool. Not only is he a great player, but his namesake is a tradition at my family’s holiday gatherings. I’m excited about what Sam Pittman is building for the long haul in Fayetteville, but I think the chip on his team’s shoulder can take them to the next level in 2022.
Wild Cards.
Being a secondary SEC program in the latter half of the top 25 is quite a precarious situation. Teams in that position are likely better than many ahead of them in the rankings, but listed behind because of where they stand in their respective conferences. Those teams are one win against a high end conference opponent away from vaulting to the top ten, and one loss against a talented low end conference opponent from falling out of the rankings all together. That’s just life in America’s premier conference, I guess.
The two things that can carry one of these teams to that elusive big win are coaching and quarterbacking. Kentucky (#20) and Ole Miss (#21) have both. Mark Stoops and Lane Kiffin have rather quietly become two of the nations better coaches. Wildcat quarterback Will Levis looks like a first round pick and Jaxson Dart brings five star pedigree to Oxford after playing six games under center for USC last season. Keep a close eye on these teams.
Honorable Mentions.
These are unranked teams that I felt deserved a mention.
I don’t really think Tennessee is good enough to make a run into the top twenty, but they will easily be one of my favorite teams to watch. I am obsessed with Josh Heupel’s offense and even more so with his quarterback Hendon Hooker. Even their backup Joe Milton has piqued my interest. If he graduates or the one time transfer rule is altered, I’ll be rooting for him to bring his talents back up north, this time to my hometown school for the 2023 season.
After expressing my doubts about Wisconsin above, it’s only right to note that both Iowa and Minnesota look like legitimate contenders in the Big Ten West. This Hawkeyes team is the prototype for the program and will always be a tough game. The Golden Gophers seem to have a little more upside this year on the strength of sixth year quarterback Tanner Morgan, returning offensive coordinator Kirk Ciarrocca, and an underrated defense led by a sneaky good secondary.
I’ll believe it when I see it.
Teams like Texas and LSU have been popular picks to make the jump into the rankings. While that makes sense because of their immensely talented rosters, I am taking a wait and see approach with those programs. Steve Sarkisian enters his second season in Austin and needs to move the needle if he wants to keep his job. The Longhorns recently named redshirt freshman Quinn Ewers the starting quarterback. Ewers is a former number one overall recruit from Texas who originally committed to the 2022 UT class before reclassifying to ’21 and flipping to Ohio State. He spent one season as a backup in Columbus before transferring back to the team he grew up rooting for. It won’t be easy for him, the team is already dealing with injuries on the offensive line and at receiver, and he will face Alabama in his second game. Former Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly is in his first season in Baton Rouge. Like any other new LSU coach, he inherits a roster full of five stars. My favorite of the bunch is, of course, a defensive tackle. Maason Smith is a star in the making and the Tigers are banking on a full breakout in 2022. If Kelly eventually settles on ASU transfer Jayden Daniels at quarterback, as is expected, the fate of their season will rest on his shoulders.
Hope you enjoyed my initial reactions to the preseason AP Top 25 poll. Find part one here. I’ll finish off my first week as a college football blogger with a re-watch recap of the first game I remember watching live, sometime on Sunday or Monday.
Superior CFB 