Us college football fans live for what we got to witness in week 2. It all started with a sneaky good game between Louisville and UCF on Friday night, continued Saturday morning in Austin with the headliner of the week between Alabama and Texas, and finished with upsets galore throughout the remainder of the day. I traded away my tickets, set up three screens in the living room, and settled in for a weekend on the couch. Sure I sprinkled in some stretch run baseball action, but late Friday night I watched week 1 replays and early Saturday morning I caught up on the Paul Finebaum show, making for what I estimated to be a 30 hour college football marathon.
This week I’ll be back on campus for a 2:30pm CT game that will take a big bite out of that potential screen time. Don’t think for a second that I’m not already game-planning the rest of my day around the evening slate in an attempt to maximize my consumption of this beautifully chaotic sport. Here are the games that are at the top of my priority list.
*Note: Last week I picked a few games against the spread and will continue to do so for all of the games featured, with a few more notable games listed without picks.
#22 Penn State (2-0) at Auburn (2-0)(+3) – 3:30pm ET
Talk about a bettors trap game. An overrated Big Ten team favored by three on the road against an SEC team. Penn State has looked as bland as ever, and although Sean Clifford might actually be a little underrated now, he isn’t going to take over a game. Freshman phenom running back Nicholas Singleton found his groove last week to the tune of 179 yards and 2 TDs, and Kaytron Allen provides a nice complement. They will have to carry the offense against an Auburn run defense that has allowed 247.5 yards per game on the ground against some questionable competition. The Tigers have been disappointing so far, barely beating San Jose State last week. Their quarterback situation is quite confusing. Coming into the season Zach Calzada was the assumed starter. Then Bryan Harsin, the coach with quite possibly the hottest seat in the country, shocked everyone by naming TJ Finley the starter. Now reports out of Auburn are that Robby Ashford is being groomed to take over. At the moment the plan is to play both Finley and Ashford. Due to the question marks surrounding who will even be under center for the Tigers, and the expected advantage in the run game for Penn State, I am taking the Nittany Lions minus three on the road.
Texas Tech (2-0) at #16 NC State (2-0)(-10) – 7pm ET
A classic matchup of explosive offense versus stout defense, this one is a sleeper to be the game of the day. First year coach Joey McGuire has the Red Raiders looking very good so far, while one of my underrated picks NC State has been somewhat disappointing. Texas Tech opening day quarterback Tyler Shough is out for this game because of a shoulder injury, but some around the program have indicated backup Donovan Smith actually has more upside. He was strong in relief of Shough in week 1, but stumbled a bit in his first start of the year last week against Houston throwing three interceptions. He will get another chance to find his footing and possibly grab hold of the starting job against an experienced Wolfpack defense and in a hostile environment in Raleigh. I think he’ll be up for the task and have the Red Raiders beating the ten point spread.
UTSA (1-1) at #21 Texas (1-1)(-12.5)
In my week 2 reaction post I expressed concern about an overreaction to Texas’ performance. Coming out of their one point loss at home to Alabama, the talk around the country has (once again) been that they are back. While I was impressed with how they played against the (then) number one team in the country, I thought the outcome was more a symptom of the Tide’s poor performance. Add Quinn Ewers injury to the equation, and it seemed to me like the narrative had swung too far back in the other direction for Steve Sarkisian’s team. While I still think that’s true, and the actual level of this team falls somewhere in the middle, I think they ride the momentum and take care of business against UTSA. Jeff Traylor’s team were the darlings of 2021, but the shine seems to have worn off a bit. In two close games against an overrated Houston team and an unimpressive Army team, they haven’t wowed anyone. While their offense has been very productive, their defense can’t stop a nose bleed. The blue chippers at Texas dominate the line of scrimmage and their defense does just enough to hold the Roadrunners down. The Longhorns win and cover.
#13 Miami (2-0) at #24 Texas A&M (1-1)(-5.5)
Do I even have to explain myself here? Texas A&M is coming off a miserable performance at home last week, scoring only fourteen points on one offensive touchdown vs. an App. State team that gave up 63 points to North Carolina in week 1. Jimbo Fisher’s offense has hit a wall in recent years, and he doesn’t seem willing to make the necessary adjustments to modernize it. He has already been facing questions of whether he would be willing to relinquish play calling duties, but has shown no real signs of making a change. Miami on the other hand, is one of my favorite teams to watch this year and looks ready to take the step back into glory. Mario Cristobal is building something for the long haul in Coral Gables, but it doesn’t hurt to start off his tenure with a real deal quarterback already on roster in Tyler Van Dyke. I think Miami wins this one outright, but have decided to only pick the spreads officially, leaving myself a win-win. If Miami wins, I still win the bet and can point to this blurb, essentially taking credit for the outright call. If they lose, I have 5.5 points to work with. At least I’m up front about it.
Other Notables – No Picks
Purdue (1-1) at Syracuse (2-0)(-1) – 12pm ET
Purdue was a sexy pick in the Big Ten West this season and has been tough to get a read on so far. They hung with Penn State on the opening Thursday night of week 1, but didn’t impress me in the process. After predictably rolling Indiana State in week 2, they head to upstate New York to take on one of the biggest early season surprise teams. Dino Babers has Syracuse rolling. They shocked the nation by blowing out Louisville in week 1 and took care of business against a weaker UCONN team last week. Garrett Shrader looks legit under center (87.5 QBR) and Sean Tucker is an established star at running back. I don’t know enough about either team to try to predict what is basically a toss-up, but I’ll definitely be keeping an eye on this one.
#12 BYU (2-0) at #25 Oregon (1-1)(-3.5) – 3:30pm ET
This game almost certainly deserves a spot up above in the featured matchups. A tough and experienced BYU team coming off a top ten win over Baylor, takes on a solid Oregon squad still looking to prove itself after a blowout loss to Georgia in week 1. My gut is leaning towards BYU plus the points but I am not confident enough to make the pick. Despite whatever the overreactors told you about Oregon after watching (probably half of) the first game, they still have a very talented roster (#7 in 247Sports Talent Composite Rankings) and a first year coach in Dan Lanning that I truly believe in. Too close to call but a must watch nonetheless.
Mississippi State (2-0) at LSU (1-1)(+2.5) – 6pm ET
This game is low-key the matchup I am most excited to watch. It’s trendy this week to call Mississippi State the most underrated team in the country. It’s also trendy to call Brian Kelly a fraud and declare he has no chance at LSU. While it isn’t asinine to make either statement, like in most aspects of life, the truth likely lies somewhere in the middle. The Bulldogs might actually be the most underrated team in the country right now but there are still questions on defense, as there typically are for a unit playing opposite of a Mike Leach offense. As for Kelly, I believe he is still a top flight coach, and runs one of the tightest ships in the country. The type of operation that when armed with the talent that LSU has, can beat any team, especially on a Saturday night in Baton Rouge. I desperately wanted to pick this game but couldn’t get myself to take a side. That usually means we are in for a dandy. Can’t wait.
#11 Michigan State (2-0) at Washington (2-0)(-3.5) – 7:30pm ET
Admittedly I haven’t really watched these teams this season, but I’ll be tuning into this one if only as a scouting assignment. Next week Michigan State will be facing my Minnesota Gophers in what I expect to be the coming out party for the Big Ten West’s U of M. I’ll be watching that game as I eat lunch in Seattle, preparing to attend the Stanford at UW game that night. This week’s matchup conveniently pits two of the teams on my week 4 radar against each other. Sparty has continued to roll in its third season under Mel Tucker, but hasn’t faced any competition of note. This game will be a nice test against a Washington team full of talent (#20 in 247Sports Talent Composite Ranking) that seems to have turned its offense around under first year head coach Kalen DeBoer and transfer quarterback Michael Penix Jr., albeit against their own pair of lackluster opponents.
Fresno State (1-1) at #7 USC (2-0)(-12) – 10:30pm ET
This game just screams late night gem. The type of game us football nerds will retell the story of over and over again to our friends with either a normal sleep schedule or an actual social life. It’s a badge of honor for us to stay up watching these games, even if others think we are crazy for it. One of my earliest CFB memories was when my buddy and I sat in his parents basement late into the night in 2007 watching Reggie Bush shred the Bulldogs with 513 all-purpose yards. I still tell that story to this day (doing it right now). USC’s offense has been unstoppable and it’s defense leaky. Fresno State’s offense has been just OK, but hasn’t really opened it up yet behind star quarterback Jake Haener (72.5 QBR) and the return of former head coach Jeff Tedford. If they can do it Saturday night this one has a chance to be another classic. The over under currently sits at a whopping 75 points… Enough said!
Official Picks
Penn State -3
Texas Tech +10
Texas -12.5
Miami +5.5
Thanks for reading!
Superior CFB 